Jinxiang is the main producing area of garlic, perennial planting garlic 700 thousand acres or so, for many years formed a fixed garlic planting thinking. Because people are difficult to grasp on the market, the formation of garlic or regardless of every year, the average price, the price model of good bad stalls. This model also ensures Jinxiang's planting scale and, on the other hand, the garlic.
Jinxiang was also the original part of farmers is to follow the trend of planting garlic which year expensive, watching others make money, can buy to buy garlic for garlic which began; cheap, disposable pay annoyed, sold out for no longer, with people saying that some people almost always rushed to the "empty" in. This situation of each village have, many times, a long time in the village falls a laughing stock, being as anti index, at leisure from time to time someone out ridicule: "what kind of you see him every year, do not follow a quasi money!". The garlic agriculture itself is in the industry vulnerable groups of information, understand and grasp the lack of capacity, and even Tandao "empty" and let the people in the village of jokes, most of them choose to base your kind, good and bad price stalls, "the heavens" hit you. What year Zainian garlic prices have lost money, who also did the joke of qualified people.
Garlic farmers in general this year, not much money, if the garlic species are not cost, garlic in 2.5 yuan / kg near the sale, rough count per mu, there are nearly 2000 yuan of profits. Garlic for counting the cost price, after all this time last year in grade 6.5 yuan / kg, if to sell wheat seeds, garlic income per acre is two thousand o! The same is pure income. This year alone 2-3 yuan price, since 2010 is also a moderate market. Cliff compared to 10 years and 12 years after the price drop, this year is the garlic farmers market is still slightly favored, played a walk down from the peak year of relay function, after all, the market is low, the periodic cycle of yin and Yang, which is not the will of the people.
From now on the multi-party data analysis, the conservative 3 million tons has reached the historical cold storage high, compared to last year's 1 million 950 thousand tons, an increase of 153%. It is 200 thousand tons higher than 2013, which is famous for its large area and high output. The estimated increase in output at the beginning of the year was 25%, plus an increase of 20%-25% in the area. In 2013, the purchase price is 1.5 yuan from 0.9 yuan rose to begin sealing doors, cold storage and sale price of 1.1 yuan to 1.4 yuan, taking out most of the losses of cold storage. This year's purchase price garlic generally rose from 2 yuan to 3 yuan, plus inventory fees and other related costs, the average cost is about 2.8 yuan. Some people say that this year the export volume, from the production of new garlic listed nearly three months of exports, only in June than the same period last year, export volume doubled to reach 260 thousand tons, the main reason is the cold storage garlic prices high, near the new season of foreign garlic intends to "empty inventory" caused exports in July; 186 thousand tons, basically unchanged from last year's 189 thousand tons; exports in August is expected to remain unchanged from the same period last year 190 thousand tons. From last year's 6 yuan, less than 3 yuan this year, the normal month of low prices did not bring a substantial increase in exports, exports at this stage is not optimistic. Although in June this year, there is no surplus of garlic in the warehouse, referring to the recent export and domestic situation performance, in 2018 June, cold storage garlic remaining hundreds of thousands of tons, a foregone conclusion.
Acquisition season, a large number of foreign funds involved, coupled with vendors to help the orchid, so that prices lost this year, the value of the existence of late storage, the price drop is also foreshadowed some things. Garlic farmers - garlic Merchants - consumers themselves are in the "zero sum" game, since garlic farmers sold more money this year, garlic manufacturers and consumers will always be one of them or two pay. This year, garlic farmers lucky profit, so that the next season garlic planting area will not be significantly reduced. Line popular words, if garlic farmers do not lose money, did not reach the extent of unforgettable, the area will not be reduced. Planting area, yield per unit area and remaining of cold storage will determine the price formation pattern in 2018. The only uncertainty is the per unit area yield, but what is the possibility of a "big reduction in 2012"? If there is no accident, cold storage business can not earn the expected profits or lose money, intervention funds tend to be rational, in 2018 the acquisition of seasonal market range from 1 to 2 yuan, the probability of running larger.
The above is a small series, to know some of the things to share with you, I hope for garlic farmers more friends to provide some reference information. How to adjust the planting structure, garlic and less or to their own thinking to grasp, follow the trend of growing is not suitable for the development of agriculture, according to changes in the market, rational and planned planting is the future direction of agricultural development. The company and the author of this article shall not be liable for all losses caused by individuals or other groups on the basis of this article. This article describes the wrong place, but also the industry's friends criticized a lot of correction, if there is a different opinion, or want to add something to share, please leave a positive message below. Original author Xu Benhe
