As soon as autumn, the price of corn becomes a topic of great concern.
In September, spring corn in the northeast and autumn corn in north China will be listed, but some recent bad news about the weather and insect pests has caused many friends to worry.
So what is the market for new corn this year?
The analysts' forecasts are quite consistent.
Rainstorms and pests are coming, this year's corn...
Since August, the growth of spring corn in northeast China has gradually entered the stage of flowering and spinning, and autumn corn in north China has entered the final stage of field management.
During this critical period, the bad news that affects corn production is from time to time: on October 10, there were heavy rainstorms in eastern Inner Mongolia, western heilongjiang, central jilin, northern liaoning and other parts of China.
Recently, a large scale of worms have been found in the main corn producing region of jilin, and the corn in handan, hebei, has been greatly affected by strong winds.
Will the production of corn be affected by more natural disasters this year?
Sun yu, an analyst, said: "corn has been a natural disaster for different degrees over the years. From the current situation, it will not be stronger than the previous years, and it will not be more serious than the previous one."
Natural disasters are not as heavy as in previous years, but analyst liu dong still thinks corn production will fall this year.
Huhu said: "this seeding time although there have been some disasters, including now some of the local storm rainfall disasters, armyworm, but in the west of Inner Mongolia, heilongjiang, jilin, liaoning maize growth in those places, or better.
Our forecast for corn production this year is going down, not because of natural disasters but because of the decline in planting area."
This year, analysts say, maize yield is to reduce corn caused by the way, the effects of a natural disaster on the overall yield, so this year is new corn prices to go up to still drop, can't see the disaster.
How would the price of corn go?
What will be the price of new corn this year?
Liu dong, an analyst with zhuo chuang, believes that the two aspects should be analyzed.
One is the import of corn substitutes.
Huhu: "our country imposed quotas, corn is 7.2 million tons per year of quota, the amount of relative to domestic production, including the consumption is very small, it will have little impact on the domestic.
But when we talk about import, the general meeting of its alternatives, including sorghum, wheat, cassava stem such alternatives, their quantity is very big, like sorghum, barley without import quota restrictions."
When domestic corn prices rise, the price advantage of corn substitutes becomes apparent and imports rise, says liu.
When imports slow or even decrease, the price of domestic corn has fallen.
For now, the import of corn substitutes is lower than in previous years, liu said, indicating that our domestic corn prices will remain low for a long time and will soon rebound.
Liu dong: "in 2015, the number of substitutes reached 42 million tons, which is about 12 million tons in January and June this year.
This year, most of the alternatives are sorghum, barley, and sorghum is generally smaller than last year's imports.
The second is the price of Chen grain.
The price of Chen grain will rise, and the price of new corn will rise.
Mr. Liu believes that the price of corn, which has already reached its lowest point, is unlikely to be lower, and that prices are rebounding.
Liu dong: "the price of the first half of 2016 and the first half of 2017 is the bottom price, and the price of the second half of 2017 and 2018 should be higher than before.
On the balance between supply and demand of it, don't consider the inventory of corn, the new and consumption is basically balanced, even a small gap between supply and demand, so the corn should begin business this year than last year, the judge should be a basic determine."
Sun yu, a galactic futures analyst, holds the same view.
Sun yu: "the price of corn has been low because of the guidance of the country's structural policy. In the long run, the price of corn is gradually rising.
There will be a regional market for the future time points, and overall it will be very strong.
How do corn farmers react?
The price of new corn this year should be higher than the new corn price in 2015 and 2016, which is good news for growers.
So the question is, how high will this year's new corn scale be? Corn farmers, especially big families, are going to make the biggest profit?
Zhuochuang information analyst liu dong suggests that the big grain producers should not be reluctant to sell their psychology in a timely manner in the affordable space.
Huhu: "this year begin business price is high, there is some farmers will want to psychological, but because our country has large inventories, cause it is still an oversupply, so this year, corn prices while overall prices higher than last year, but estimates that won't appear in May, the rose is not too big."
Sun yu, a galaxy futures analyst, suggested that big grain producers should learn to predict the trend of spot prices in corn and guide their own sales.
Sun yu: "when companies buy corn, it is also a reference for futures prices. We can also refer to futures prices for grain producers and individuals to compare with spot prices.
For example, the futures price of 1800 yuan, 1500 yuan, the spot price difference is bigger, among which means we corn spot prices low, corn grain large can keep some more time, gradually to the futures price and spot price such as selling.
One more thing, the futures market, after all, have the properties of financial, so it is also faster than the spot price fluctuations, the characteristics of a nc, we can see changes in the futures market to determine our spot price."
Source of the article: the voice of rural China
