In September, China's corn market basically entered the new phase of the new grain, and this year the two markets are "tit-for-tat".
As new corn in the southwest and north China is listed, the market price will be suppressed, especially the oil storage policy.
But this is not the case. In early September, the corn in the huai-huai-huai region of north China began a rapid and rapid rise, mainly focusing on local processing enterprises to raise prices for new food.
At the same time, the sales volume and the transaction price have been improved.
However, in the past two days, the purchase price of corn for deep-processing enterprises in shandong, hebei and henan has been re-opened.
The sharp drop in corn prices in half a month has been eye-rolling. Why?
How will corn prices run as autumn grain is launched on a large scale?
In early September, the corn price in the huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai
We published last week's article "the price of corn in September has skyrocketed! Is it a good sign of autumn harvest? Or is it a precursor to a crisis?"
In early September, the price of corn in huanghuai area of north China was analyzed in detail.
It is simply because the market supply of environmental protection, weather and other issues has caused periodic tension.
Local prices began to drop this week, with the local price dropping by as much as 120 yuan per ton.
Mainly due to the environmental protection supervision evacuated, enterprise quantity increasing corn the arrival of the goods, and speed up the pace of new corn listed, processing enterprises to buy corn prices rise slowed markedly, parts of rational correction, prices remain range-bound.
Compared with the fluctuation of corn prices in the huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-huai-hu
The northeast region is still supply of old grain, and the new corn in individual areas is sporadic.
Local traders are mainly due to tengku.
Some processing enterprises resumed the purchase, and the new grain enterprises listed prices increased by 100 yuan/ton over the same period.
The amount of new grain in the port is less than that, and the number of ports is continuously lower, especially in the northern ports such as jinzhou and kaoyu, and the cost support price has increased.
The high quality corn in the southern sales area has rigid demand, and the price of the corn corn continues to rise. Since the new corn has not been fully started, the price of some high-quality products has continued to strengthen.
The bottom price is still the pillar!
At the beginning of September, the situation of the auction transaction was clearly improved, and the transaction rate rose straight.
In the week ended September 15, the sales volume of the corn week was 2.3m tonnes, 1.61 million tons, and the total turnover rate was 70.38%, up nearly 400,000 tons from last week.
Among them, targeted sales of corn flow, sub-credit and corn sold 70, 000 tons, in which the grain reserves dried corn 1.54 million tons, and the cumulative volume of the auction has been 45.66 million tons.
Transaction prices also showed significant increases.
The reason for the recent recovery is that the company has been shut down due to the environmental problems in the early stage, and as the processing enterprises resume production capacity, the demand for replenishing the warehouse has been increased.
It was nearly half a month before the new corn concentration went on sale, together with the rising price of food due to the supply stage, which led to the recovery of the price and the transaction rate of the corn market.
Good news, corn prices to rise?
The recent sharp drop in corn prices has sparked concern, and a rousing news has crept into the market.
The national development and reform commission, the national energy administration, the ministry of finance and other 15 departments jointly issued the implementation plan for the expansion of ethanol production and promotion of ethanol in the use of motor vehicles.
According to the plan, by 2020, it will be fully covered by ethanol gasoline.
What is the impact of the food filling on the future corn market?
China's corn prices have plummeted since the reform.
The bottom line is because of the imbalance between supply and demand.
According to the market, the current domestic policy is about 190 million tons of corn.
In the current situation of abundant food supply and the over-stage of corn, the introduction of ethanol from corn as feedstock will be conducive to the rapid consumption of corn stocks.
According to the target of the national development and reform commission's long-term development plan for renewable energy, the annual consumption of biofuel ethanol in China will reach 10 million tons by 2020.
Market experts point out that the gap in reaching this goal is about seven million tons.
If you produce ethanol entirely from corn, it would be about 3 tons of corn =1 ton of ethanol, which means 20 million tons of corn will be consumed.
Of course, this is too idealistic, we need to know that the production of ethanol besides corn, wheat, potato, cellulose and synthetic gas, acetic acid, acetate, methanol, dimethyl ether and so on.
But the demand for ethanol corn is likely to be magnified indefinitely because of the ultimate goal of making a decision on the stocks of corn.
This is undoubtedly a big positive for the corn market in the future.
The autumn harvest food price big guess!
In the next half a month, new corn in northeast China will also enter the market.
Next, we will talk about how corn prices will run after the autumn harvest.
Recently, with the new grain listing in the northeast of the region, individual enterprises have taken the lead.
Jinzhou yuancheng was the first to purchase the new season corn, the standard water price of second grade food source was 1620 yuan/ton, and the standard moisture content of the grain source was 1590yuan/ton.
Yihai kerry second-class food source standard moisture standard of 1620 yuan/ton, higher than the end of August Chen grain purchase of 1550-1560 yuan/ton level.
In response to the new grain price in north China, many people think it will be more than 1,600-1,900 yuan/ton, significantly higher than last year's 1400-1600 yuan/ton.
In terms of market supply and demand, we have seen that the planting area of corn has been reduced this year and the situation in some areas is continuing. This year, we expect a significant decline in corn production.
In the future, the demand side will gradually improve and support the corn price.
