First, the trend of garlic
According to the shandong province jinxiang garlic market for monitoring (August 7-13), level up and new garlic garlic average wholesale price of 5.27 yuan/kg, and grade garlic garlic last week average wholesale price is $5.42 kg, dropped 2.77%, a slight drop in price of garlic, garlic last week on volume of 52500 tons of garlic, and volume of 42687 tons of garlic, garlic last week fell 0.44%, basic flat, garlic volume last week turnover is 223.975 million yuan, garlic and garlic last week turnover is 231.36354 million yuan, fell 3.19%, garlic sales decline.
Graph: garlic
2. Dynamic analysis of garlic
Last week the garlic price still keep falling situation, compared with up and last week a slight drop in price, average price level of garlic garlic by 5.40 yuan/kg, and Sunday Sunday on down to the average price of 5.02 yuan/kg, dropped by 0.38 yuan/kg, fell at a rate of 7.04%, because now garlic immediately to the germination period, both farmers and small dealers and large farming, are in a hurry to sell, once the garlic sprout, the decline in the quality of garlic, garlic prices are not in a big as, garlic prices lower, make store business started buying again like storage of garlic, garlic into the Treasury begin to increase, but the consumer market at home and abroad as if there is no big difference.
Volume was flat, the main reason for decline in turnover as follows: 1, the ministry recently dispatching inspection in shandong province, jinxiang garlic processing enterprises of all went to the field processing garlic, local production to stop production, basically on Saturday to resume production, or shift production, processing capacity than normal production cut in half, outside package enterprises in the production of garlic, rent or processing fee has paid, garlic processing also have to continue to produce, but was not too big;
2. The best warehousing period for garlic has basically ended, and the merchants who stopped buying the last time have now started to purchase again, and the warehousing starts to increase.
3. Domestic and foreign consumption market is not big, still is on demand purchase.
Figure: dehydrated garlic slice
3. Forecast analysis of garlic
1. The garlic slice processing enterprises resumed production last Saturday, garlic processing and consumption of garlic began to purchase again.
2. The beginning of autumn has already passed, meaning that the temperature will drop, garlic sprouts will open, garlic will sprout, and the garlic farmers and small dealers will be put under pressure to sell their enthusiasm.
3. It is now in mid-august and the best time to enter the warehouse is shortened.
August 7, beginning of autumn, it fell by more than 10 days after the beginning of autumn the temperature, the temperature drops if, garlic will sprout, garlic quality to drop, so little time to put in storage, best with garlic prices decline, garlic and continue to put in storage space, on the part of the store business began to purchase inventory last weekend.
4. Garlic is not too much garlic in the hands of garlic farmers. Garlic is concentrated in the hands of small dealers and in the hands of the packers. Since the optimal warehousing time is not much, the purchasing is also the price of the purchase.
Garlic farmers and small dealers are selling more, but now the price of garlic has broken through the small dealers' purchase price, and now sells garlic dealers to lose money.
Some of the small dealers began to stop selling, watching the market, if the market did not improve, this part of the small dealers may put garlic into the warehouse.
5, garlic prices continue to decline, make the library in the middle of the price of garlic and garlic prices have a certain price difference, now purchasing Treasury, in the middle of the comprehensive cost is lower than purchase garlic put in storage now, have a competitive advantage, so part of the store business began to purchase garlic put in storage, large part also started a large number of procurement.
6. The recovery production of garlic garlic slice processing last week, the positive factor appears, garlic price increases possibility increases, but the price recovery will not be too big.
based on the above analysis, the price of garlic is expected to increase steadily this week.
