A new season of corn in the south is on the way to the bottom of the crop in the northeast.
In mid-august, the new spring corn in henan, shandong and other places will also be harvested. From late August to early September, the new spring corn in north China is expected to be fully listed.
With the new season of corn being sold and the corn market changing, what are the farmers going to do?
Take a look at this forecast from the department of agriculture's rural economic research center.
Take a look at this year
The price of the corn market
Domestic corn prices have rebounded for five straight months since march.
In July, the average wholesale price of the national sales and marketing area was 1,699 yuan/ton, 1837 yuan/ton, respectively, up 12.8% and 9.2%, respectively, from February.
But since late July, domestic corn prices have started to fall.
It can be seen that, whether it is the production area or the sales area, the spot or the futures, the trend of the overall decline of domestic corn prices is obvious, and still in the low price in recent years.
In July, the average wholesale price of the national sales and sales area fell 33.1%, 33.9%, compared with the high in recent years.
In the short term, domestic corn prices are likely to weaken further ahead of the new corn market.
Main reason is that, on the one hand, the national corn inventory pressure is still large, inventory is an important task of the current policy of corn, the new corn listed first in the country will continue to carry out large-scale store corn auctions, clinch a deal at the same time early store auction in the corn will soon take place, so as to increase market supply pressure.
Traders, on the other hand, still have some provisions to sell before the new corn goes on sale.
But the new corn market is still in the market before the market, prices are relatively firm, and there is little room for decline.
Here's the point!
New corn market forecast
One, the price does not appear cliff type fall, total likelihood is slightly higher than last year
After the new corn market, market supply will increase further, prices will face seasonal downward pressure.
But unlike in previous years, when the market price of new corn does not fall off a cliff, the overall price may be slightly higher than last year.
The main reasons for this situation are:
First, the mechanism of the corn market has been established, which will not be reproduced in the same way as last year's cancellation of the temporary storage. The market participants will be more likely to enter the market with a positive attitude and enthusiasm.
The second is that the current prices are at historic lows and there is no room for sharp falls.
Third, the year of the year is expected to achieve basic balance, and the contradiction between the phased supply and demand is expected to be alleviated.
On the one hand, the area of corn continues to decrease, and production is expected to decline accordingly.
On the other hand, consumer demand has risen sharply.
This year, the utilization rate of maize deep processing enterprises has increased significantly. The growth of pig breeding and other breeding industries such as livestock and poultry have continued to develop, and the consumption of feed has also increased.
The decline in production and consumption growth will improve the supply glut and support the price.
Four is the new corn market country will suspend the corn auction.
In order to protect farmers' interests, the state has made it clear that the principle of corn auction is not to depress the market during the acquisition season.
Therefore, the auction of the corn is usually the end of the corn acquisition season, and the new corn is coming to an end.
For example, the 2016 auction of corn for corn starts in late may and ends in mid-october.
This year's auctions start in early may and are expected to stop selling before mid-october.
In order to cope with the excessive market price decline and the "grain selling difficulty", the state has a more mature response plan.
When excessive prices fall or "difficult to sell corn", countries will start reserves maize rotation, and improve financial services to ensure that the new food acquisition is flush with cash and put in place, may even subsidies and other supporting policies on processing enterprises, to support the market main body in the market purchase.
But given the country's huge corn inventory pressure, the price of new corn is unlikely to rise much this year, and expectations for corn prices should not be too high.
Two, suggest farmer: choose machine wrong peak sells grain, safeguard income
After the new corn is listed, to increase the profit and avoid unnecessary loss, it is suggested that the farmer friend to sell the food according to his condition.
1. The false peak sells food
During the period of the new corn concentration, the price is generally lower, and there are more pressure prices of the buyers. The northeast region usually goes public on the New Year's day to the Spring Festival, and should avoid selling food during this period.
2. Choose the food sales strategy according to different conditions
Corn that is not easily preserved or without storage conditions should be sold in due course;
The farmer who has the storage condition, can grasp the sales strategy according to the market market flexibly.
Generally after the end of the acquisition season, the market price will have a wave of higher prices, and the qualified farmers can store it for sale after April.
3. Order sales
Farmers and USES enterprise, cooperative purchase contract ahead of time, such as enterprises, cooperative will generally provide from seed to production technology and the acquisition of "one-stop" service, not only production is guaranteed, the price generally higher.
4. Improved storage conditions
At present, the peasant household supplies facilities generally poor, many farmers in northeast China is "to give food", mildew, rat postpartum loss not only, also often forced farmers to peak at a low price to market sales, the market risk is bigger.
It is recommended that the farmers' friends build "corn house", the state implements the farmer science storage project, the farmer construction standard "corn house" has certain subsidy, the farmer can actively apply.
The farmers who cannot build the "corn house" should also be kept as reasonable as possible to avoid rain and snow infiltration, maintain ventilation conditions and reduce the risk of mildew.
Major food producers, cooperative and other new business entities can also apply for support policies to build facilities such as warehousing and drying.
